France could enter a grim political period of instability if none of the political alliances (far-right – left – center) secured an absolute majority in the second round of the legislative elections scheduled for tomorrow Sunday, according to political analysts and French experts.
Speaking to Qatar News Agency , they affirmed that if the three competing fronts in the elections did not achieve the absolute majority in the second round of the run-off, the consequences would entirely disrupt the political life in France with deadlock, thus dragging the country into a cycle of standoff and infinite political rifts.
They stated that the coming period will be full of instability and uncertainty at least for one year, because the French constitutions bans the President from dissolving the Parliament once again, and consequently the political life will remain fragile at home and abroad, specially that President Emmanuel Macron will be at the end of his second and final presidential term.
Political analyst and stra
tegic expert at the French institute for international and strategic affairs (IRIS) Brahim Oumansour told QNA that the major consequences of the results of the first round of the legislative elections include expansion of the far-right influence, which would virtually bring the National Rally Party to the brink of power in the second round, especially with the possibility of gaining an absolute majority in the parliament in the second round.
The rapid exit of the moderate political elite from the left, center, and traditional right would put an end to this accelerating expansion of the far-right in the second round of the legislative elections and the upcoming electoral entitlements, Oumansour highlighted, indicating that the moderate political elite will thus be overcoming the confusion and morphing into the state of action, coalition, and positioning within the Unified Democratic Republican Front against the far right.
He pointed out that gaining most votes by the far-right in the second round of the run-
off is a reality. Therefore, obtaining most votes that would enable it to win and form a government is contingent upon convincing wide spectrum of the traditional right to join the alliance.
Regarding the new popular front representing the left-wing, Oumansour affirmed that gaining the absolute majority hinges upon good organization and the capability of forging new alliances, either with the center, or the traditional right to be stronger and influencer as a united front against the far-right. He outlined that the centrist presidential camp is divided and embraces those who unequivocally call for standing up to the far-right and voting for the left-wing to achieve the absolute majority, while there are those who reject this.
The closest scenario, Oumansour said, is that the National Rally Party and its allies would gain the absolute majority in the second round of the elections and the Parliament, especially given the latest opinion polls which placed the party at the vanguard, but the worst scenario is no
ne of the three political fronts gaining an absolute majority.
This would lead to a crippling state and complete gridlock in the French political life, plunging the country into a spiral of endless political debates and conflicts. This might push President Emmanuel Macron to form a technocratic government composed of experts distant from any political party, to navigate through this dark political tunnel.
Upon concluding his remarks, Oumansour emphasized that if the far-right won the absolute majority of votes in the second round, this would trigger the French President to pursue only two solutions; to co-exist with the president of the far-right government, since this co-existence is complex with enduring tension, given the plethora of domestic and external problems on which their viewpoints differ.
The second solution is the prompt resignation if he otherwise could not co-exist side-by-side with the far-right, which is tacitly a catastrophic scenario that will smear the image of France both in the Europe
an Union and globally.
In turn, Omar Al Morabit, a political analyst and expert in European affairs and international relations, told QNA that the results of the first round of the French legislative elections showed that the voters’ vote for the right-wing National Rally party and its allies is not only a punitive vote for the ruling political elite in France, but also indicates a change in the voters’ mood and a comprehensive change in the French political scene as a whole, because the ideas of the far right have become popular and resonate in French society, especially on issues of immigration and insecurity.
Al Morabit said that in light of this “comprehensive” change, it is likely that the National Rally party and its allies will obtain an absolute majority in the second round tomorrow (Sunday), which will force French President Emmanuel Macron to coexist with the far-right front, and the situation may develop into a state of political instability in the coming period.
The seriousness of this scenario
prompted President Macron to change his strategy, which he followed in the first round of the elections by putting the left and the far right in the same basket, to the necessity of strongly confronting the expansion of the far right, as President Macron called on his ministers to restore voters’ confidence in the left-wing alliance, because it is the most capable of confronting the far right in the second round of the elections, he added.
He said that the alliances of the second round of the legislative elections require the far right to attract the deputies of the traditional right (the Republican Party) and form an alliance with them if it wants to obtain an absolute majority in the next parliament, which may happen if the National Rally Party obtains a relative majority, but he did not rule out the possibility that the National Rally Party will rule by a relative majority only, as the presidential camp and President Macron did in the past two years.
He pointed to another scenario represented by the vict
ory of the new Popular Front, representing the left, in the second round and obtaining an absolute majority, especially if it expands its alliances with the center front and some well-known figures in the center, away from President Macron’s party, but he saw that the success rate of this scenario remains low given the French political reality. He considered that the center front and the presidential camp will not obtain the majority in the second round in all cases.
He stressed that in all cases and scenarios, the next stage will be one of political instability and uncertainty for at least a year, because the French constitution prevents the president from dissolving parliament again, and therefore French political life will be fragile internally and externally, especially since President Emmanuel Macron will be at the end of his second and final term.
Al Morabit said that the “forced coexistence” between President Macron and the National Rally Party if the far-right front obtains an absolute majority in t
he second round, will not be difficult because President Macron agrees with the far right on many issues, especially in domestic policy, security and immigrants, as his policy on these issues was closer to the far right than to the center or left.
For his part, Dr. Jamal Bin Kreid, political analyst and professor of political economy at the Sorbonne University, said that there are three scenarios in the second round of legislative elections. The first is that the National Rally Party and its allies obtain an absolute majority, which reduces President Macron’s political maneuvering room and forces him to appoint a prime minister from the far right. The second is that the National Rally Party wins a relative, not an absolute, majority, in which case the far right finds itself forced to choose a prime minister in a political manner subject to the choice of ballots.
Bin Kreid added, in remarks to the Qatar News Agency , that the third scenario is that none of the three fronts (the far right, the center, and the
left) are able to obtain an absolute majority, which will force the President of the Republic to form a government of experts, or that the President rule alone using Article 8 of the Constitution, which stipulates that the President can rule by orders, because there is a risk that it hinders the optimal performance of institutions. In this case, the President enjoys all the powers of governance and legislation by orders.
Bin Kreid concluded that coexistence between President Macron and Jordan Bardella, the far-right candidate for prime minister, is possible according to the arts of politics, because politics is the art of compromise, and because the nature of constitutional authority in France obliges the head of state to accept political reality and the will of the people.
The right-wing National Rally party and its allies topped the results of the first round of legislative elections, obtaining more than 33 percent of the voters’ votes, while the New Popular Front (left-wing alliance) came in second place
with 28 percent of the votes, the presidential alliance (centrist) came in third with 20 percent of the votes, and the Republicans (traditional right) came in fourth with 6.7 percent of the votes.
The French National Assembly (parliament) consists of 577 seats, including 13 overseas departments and 11 electoral districts representing French expatriates abroad. To obtain an absolute majority in parliament, a party needs 289 seats. The first round of legislative elections excludes all candidates who fail to obtain 12.5 percent of the vote. Anyone who obtains 50 percent of the vote with a turnout of at least a quarter of local voters automatically wins.
Source: Qatar News Agency